THE APPLICATION OF STOCHASTIC MODEL IN CASCADE RESERVOIR OF SAGULING, CIRATA, AND JATILUHUR DAM FOR RESERVOIR STANDARD OPERATION PROCEDURE

P D K Utami^[1]*, A W H Suharsono², D Harlan², M Farid², F I W Rohmat², E O Nuadagroho², A Mardiyono³

¹ Master’s Program in Water Resources Management, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Jl. Ganesha 10 Bandung, Indonesia, 40132

²Water Resources Engineering Research Group, Study Program of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Jl. Ganesha 10 Bandung, Indonesia 40132

³Public Company Jasa Tirta II, Jl. Lurah Kawi No. 1 Jatiluhur, Purwakarta, Jawa Barat 41152

[1]^* Corresponding author’s email: [email protected]

DOI: https://doi.org/10.20885/icsbe.vol2.art20

ABSTRACT

West Java has three cascade reservoirs namely Saguling, Cirata, and Ir. H. Juanda (Jatiluhur). This research was conducted to describe water availability using the stochastic method (ARIMA with RStudio) and to simulate future reservoir operating guidelines. The operating guidelines used for these three reservoirs are based on the modified SNI Pd T-21-2004-A for three conditions, dry, normal, and wet. The 1974 – 2018 Nanjung Station historical discharge data are used. From the preliminary test results, the possible model is ARIMA (1,0,0) (1,0,1) (12) and obtained correlation value of 0.51 and NSE value of 0.084. Forecasting is done for the next 5 years. The equation = 6.4368 + 0.5593. −1 + 0.999. −12 + − 0.9723−12 is obtained and the results have not been able to describe the peak discharge. Dependable discharge is calculated for each condition. From the results of the calculation of the operating guidelines, there is a shortage in November 2020, but the available discharge is still sufficient for PJT II needs. The Jatiluhur Reservoir is hard to be full in June, so it is designed so that the reservoir will be closer to full in May. The water shortage in the calculation of the reservoir operating guidelines happens due to forecasted result that has not been able to describe the peak discharge. Although there are differences, in general the energy produced increases because the water elevation is maintained stable, and the discharge flow is not that different from data in the operating guidelines plan.

Keywords: Stochastic Model, Cascade, Reservoir

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